Price outlook for next week (January 8-January 12)

Analysts are more optimistic than ever about the short-term outlook for gold prices. Kitco News’ latest weekly poll results show that half of retail investors expect gold prices to rise in the week of January 8-12, while two-thirds of market analysts have a bullish view on the precious metal’s short-term prospects – a change from the previous Compared with the survey, this proportion has increased significantly.

Specifically, 6 of the 9 analysts participating in the survey (66%) remain optimistic about the short-term rise in gold prices, while only 1 (11%) predicts that gold prices will fall, and the remaining 2 (equivalent to 22% ) holds a neutral opinion.

Meanwhile, 301 online surveys were distributed on the streets. Among them, 149 retail investors (accounting for 50%) expect gold to rise next week; another 79 respondents (or 26%) predict that prices will fall, while 73 respondents (or 24%) have short-term prospects for precious metals. Stay neutral. Overall, they forecast prices to average around $2,049 per ounce this weekend (as of January 12).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 67% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March.

Lower interest rates increase gold’s appeal. Therefore, the market believes that the “game” of guessing the number of Fed interest rate cuts is the main reason for gold price fluctuations in the coming months.

Regarding the price outlook next week, James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, said that gold prices will fall. “We are at a long-term resistance level and while I don’t doubt that gold will be able to break through this resistance level at some point this year, I still question the timing of this happening now. Core CPI is currently expected to be 4%,” Mr. Stanley said .

Meanwhile, Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, changed his short-term view on gold prices to bullish. “The U.S. jobs report surprised markets, but gold seems to have ignored that,” he said. “The Fed is not going to change direction again and may just move a little slower than the market had expected, so the market definitely has reason to be optimistic.”

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, believes that the sell-off of gold after the release of non-farm payrolls data and the rise in gold prices after the ISM data came from the increased expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve revised data, but the imminent conflict in the Middle East also supported gold and silver prices.

Mr Lusk expects gold to reach $2,175 between now and Valentine’s Day during the current seasonal increase. “We’ll see the (CPI) numbers next week, but I’m very optimistic,” he said.

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