Mr. Nguyen Duc Nhen: Investors who collect stocks before the Chinese New Year will receive “banh chung” after the Chinese New Year

Securities expert Nguyen Duc Nhan is optimistic about the outlook for the first quarter of 2024, saying that the market may fluctuate again when it enters the 1,185+/-5 point area in the next 3-5 trading days.

Although there are only 4 trading days, the stock market kicked off the new year of 2024 with more and more trading weeks. The week of January 2-5 was seen as relatively positive, with the VN index rising by 24.75 points (+2.4%) to 1,154 (the highest level since mid-October 2023). At the same time, market liquidity has also improved significantly, with one trading day exceeding the $1 billion mark on January 4.

With a good start, investors can fully expect 2024 to be a year with “a good beginning and a good ending”.

However, as told in the article Vietnam Index outlook from now to Lunar New Year 2024: ‘Fog hangs over alleys’ Published on November 21, 2023 The market is unlikely to rise strongly in the “sandwich” period between New Year’s Day and Lunar New Year in 2024. I think this is just a prerequisite for a strong rise after the Spring Festival holiday.

In the near future, the market may experience another strong shock when the Vietnam Index enters the 1,185+/-5 point area within the next 3-5 trading days.

Looking back at the period between 2019 and 2021, we can see that before the start of the Lunar New Year holiday, stock market trading is often “very uneasy”, making it difficult for stock investors. However, after the holidays, the effect of “stocking up” is very significant.

Having been involved in the market for nearly 20 years, I have found that the psychology of selling stocks you do not own before the holidays is understandable for the following reasons:

First, global trading will remain normal during the Lunar New Year holiday, so investors will not be able to predict all events that may occur during this period. Even if any events occur, they cannot handle them according to the world situation, so the psychology of holding stocks at a high proportion may also be risky.

Secondly, domestic individual investors tend to reduce investment or withdraw before the holidays. This is the mentality from the past to the present, and it is also an activity to summarize the results of an investment year, what was gained, and what was lost; if there is new investment, they will save this opportunity until after the holidays.

Third, psychological and financial pressures approaching the Lunar New Year have prompted market selling and withdrawal of some assets. This is one of the reasons why stocks often face adjustment pressure during the two Spring Festival holidays when liquidity is low and investor sentiment is low.

However, one “indicator” that investors can refer to is that the market often rises on the day before the Spring Festival holiday in 2019, 2021, and 2022, and then rises sharply after the holiday.

From now until the Lunar New Year in 2024, I think the stock market can trade in the range of 1,145+/-5 to 1,200+/-10; the correction is a good opportunity to accumulate stocks.

When less positive stories from 2023 are absorbed, the VN-Index and other indexes are likely to post strong gains after the Lunar New Year and continue until the end of the first quarter of 2024. There are many opportunities for the VN-Index to surpass the September 2023 peak (1,255 points) in February 2024 and even cross the 1,300-point mark in the first quarter of 2024. In this favorable situation, the best opportunity to accumulate funds occurs 2 days before the market enters the Lunar New Year holiday.

Recommended preferred stock classes include: banks (ACB (HM:), MBB (HM:), STB (HM:), CTG (HM:), BID (HM:)); securities (SSI (HM:), VCI (HM:), HCM, High temperature and pressure (HN:)); Retail (FRT (HM:), DGW (HM:), PNJ (HM:)); Oil and Gas Group (PVS (HN:), PVD (HM:), PVT (HM:)) ; Industrial park real estate (KBC (HM:), IDC (HN:)); Maritime transportation (GMD (HM:), HAH); Agriculture (PAN (HM:), DBC (HM:), BAF).

Please note that this article only represents personal investment opinions and does not guide investors and readers to participate in any trading activities of the stock codes mentioned. However, Fn investors’ real experience in the stock market can be considered for study and application.

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