Is real estate eager to expect record savings deposits?

Compared with the beginning of the year, savings interest rates have dropped by as much as 50%, but the amount of savings deposits has reached a record high. However, capital inflows into real estate have yet to clear up. Private idle funds are still considered a potential source of funds for the real estate market. Remember, during 2020-2021, cheap money (the result of expanded credit and lower interest rate policies) poured into real estate, making the market hot everywhere.

The question that needs to be asked now is, will the idle cash flow from people and banks pour into the real estate channel by 2024?

Sharing at the Real Estate Market Forum 2024 – Overcoming Challenges organized by the Association of Realtors (VAR) on January 5, Pham Anh Khoi, Director of the Dat Xanh Service Economics-Finance-Real Estate Institute (DXS-FERI) assessed that currently Vietnam The financial situation of the real estate market is facing some problems.

Specifically, deposit interest rates have dropped significantly, but the actual loan interest rates have not dropped significantly. Many mortgage customers said that the current loan interest rate still fluctuates around 10-12%, which is not an attractive interest rate. Although the first-year interest rate (preferential interest rate) has dropped to around 6-7%, the actual floating interest rate is still high.

Investors always have a medium- to long-term horizon, which means they can’t just borrow from banks at low interest rates for a year and then expect to sell immediately, the person said. Currently, it takes at least 2-3 years for investors to exit. Therefore, many people have the mentality of not borrowing money to invest in real estate during this period.

Mr. Khoi assessed that the government and the State Bank have had many policy solutions to stimulate people to borrow money from banks to boost the real estate market, but there are still no positive results.

“In order to solve this problem, I think trust is very important. When it comes to confidence, we are referring to the liquidity of the market, and liquidity is currently close to all-time lows.

According to surveys during 2019-2020, market liquidity is at a very high level, as high as around 90%. The current liquidity is only 10% to 20%, and the liquidity in Hanoi is better, only about 30%. This means that only 3 out of 10 sellers can dispose of the goods. Therefore, investors are very worried and scared when participating in the market. Therefore, it is very necessary to find solutions to create liquidity for the market in the future. “Experts emphasized.

As for investors, Mr Coy believes most of them are accepting lower profit levels. Although the current deposit interest rate is only about 3-5% a year, if you think about it carefully, it is not very positive to look at other investment channels.

Accordingly, real estate investment is difficult at the moment and there are many risks in stocks. Currently, only the golden channel is chosen by many investors, which is one of the reasons why gold prices have risen sharply in recent times.

“Therefore, in 2024, it will still be difficult for investors to find investment channels instead of savings channels, so they still accept the current low deposit interest rates. Only when the liquidity of the real estate market improves, home buyers’ confidence is expected to recover.” Experts said .

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